09 January 2020

Basic Analysis Of Baltimore Arson 2018-2019

By A.F. James MacArthur Ph.A.L.
Agitator In Chief
On Twitter: @BaltoSpectator

With all the shootings and killings taking place in the city, we rarely see statistical fire data, in particular arson, being published and disseminated to show a cumulative count. But upon close examination of even the most basic figures, it's clear homicides aren't the only public safety threat in this city. This city has an arson problem.
Baltimore Firefighters battle a blaze in NE Baltimore, 
8 January, that  left a firefighter injured. 7 occupants safely escaped.

There have been 116 unsolved arson cases in the last two years.

According to The Baltimore Sun in an article published 9 January 2019:

-- 2019: 88 arson cases, just 35 closed, only 26 arrests.

-- 2018: 92 fires ruled arson, only 29 closed. Just 28 arrests.

This gives us a total of 180 fires determined to be arson in just two years. Not taken into account are fires deemed "cause undetermined."

64 of the arson cases out of 180 being closed gives us a 35% clearance rate over the past two years. Interestingly this is nearly the same as the 32% clearance rate for homicide.

In Baltimore you can kill or set fires and odds are overwhelming you'll get away with it.

What happens with all the culprits responsible for the unsolved cases? Will they wake up and suddenly decide to give up their criminal ways? Statistics and criminology tell us no. Often once a criminal is able to get away with crime, they become emboldened and encouraged to keep going. If they're not caught, the keep commiting crime.

A look at Baltimore's murder and arson rate in comparison with arrests made should be self evident of the current course being charted for the near term future of public safety in the city.

The reader should note this is a basic analysis performed with basic information made available. It is likely a more detailed look using more comprehensive datasets would paint an even bleaker picture.

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"As long as I continue to breathe, as long as there's injustice in this world, I will use the voice that God has given me to speak against it."

-- James MacArthur
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